Example: Spread of AIDS

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Courtesy AIDS Memorial Quilt.
(Photo by Paul Margolies.)

This example illustrates how a data set which increases and then decreases leads to a cummulative data set with an approximately logistic trend.

The following data are from the Centers for Disease Control AIDS Public Information Data Set. They give the number of diagnosed cases of AIDS in the U.S. at half-year intervals between 1982 and 1997.

Location: All States
Classification: Half-year Diagnosed
Half-year DiagnosedCases (%)
Before 1982 425 (0.1)
1982 Jan-Jun 454 (0.1)
1982 Jul-Dec 747 (0.1)
1983 Jan-Jun 1382 (0.2)
1983 Jul-Dec 1763 (0.3)
1984 Jan-Jun 2753 (0.4)
1984 Jul-Dec 3582 (0.6)
1985 Jan-Jun 5296 (0.8)
1985 Jul-Dec 6694 (1.0)
1986 Jan-Jun 8857 (1.4)
1986 Jul-Dec 10462 (1.6)
1987 Jan-Jun 13809 (2.2)
1987 Jul-Dec 15190 (2.4)
1988 Jan-Jun 17701 (2.8)
1988 Jul-Dec 18256 (2.8)
1989 Jan-Jun 21434 (3.3)
1989 Jul-Dec 21734 (3.4)
1990 Jan-Jun 24858 (3.9)
1990 Jul-Dec 24211 (3.8)
1991 Jan-Jun 29016 (4.5)
1991 Jul-Dec 31108 (4.9)
1992 Jan-Jun 38091 (5.9)
1992 Jul-Dec 40963 (6.4)
1993 Jan-Jun 43103 (6.7)
1993 Jul-Dec 35946 (5.6)
1994 Jan-Jun 37554 (5.9)
1994 Jul-Dec 33655 (5.2)
1995 Jan-Jun 35641 (5.6)
1995 Jul-Dec 30592 (4.8)
1996 Jan-Jun 30368 (4.7)
1996 Jul-Dec 24288 (3.8)
1997 Jan-Jun 21394 (3.3)
1997 Jul-Dec 9759 (1.5)
Total: 641086

 
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